DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 14

Rounds 14+, 2016

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 14+.

DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 14

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. DT Fixture Key

As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R13, 2016

Round 13 Recap:

GWS – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – Well, over the past seven rounds the Bombers had been averaging conceding around 1753 DT points per game, which put them up the top of the comp for points allowed. They actually beat GWS for DT points this week and held them to 1566 which is a solid effort.

West Coast – (v Brisbane @ Brisbane) – The Lions gave up a lot to Freo the week prior and to the Eagles in Round 1 but this was very different. The Eagles were held to only 1497 points and Brisbane actually scored over 1800 themselves! It didn’t help on the scoreboard but from a DT point of view it was all about Brisbane in this match.

Essendon – (v GWS @ Etihad) – As mentioned last week, while the Giants are the toughest team to score against this year GWS away from home give up 1542 pts & 3.2 x 100s. So away from home, as this game was, they’re actually only middle of the pack in restrictiveness. The Bombers continued that, scoring 1615 DT points against them and 3 x 100s.

Western Bulldogs – (v Geelong @ Etihad) – The Dogs did struggle to score this week, only putting up 1471 points, so it did indeed prove to be a tough matchup for them. The Cats had no such trouble, inflicting by far the heaviest DT tally that the Dogs have conceded at Etihad in 2016.

So all in all, all 4 of the forecasted matchups last week turned out to be 100% spot-on, which is always handy.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Hawthorn – (v Gold Coast @ Launceston) – Don’t look now but the Suns have now lost 9 games in a row. In terms of DT points, they’ve given up an average of 5.5 x 100s in that time, 1.5 x 120s in that time & have also conceded more than 1750 points in 6 of their last 7 games. Last week the Tigers slotted 5 x 100s (and a 99) including a 137 & a 121 too, so teams are still scoring well against the Suns. Down in Tassie is probably the last place that Gold Coast wanted to travel to this week too, as the Hawks usually score down there and score well. This shapes as an easy scoring match for the reigning premiers.

Fremantle – (v Collingwood @ MCG) – The Pies are conceding an average of 1718 points per game at the MCG this year and 4 x DT 100s, so they’re getting a lot of good scores against them. It’s Freo’s turn this week; although it is their first game at the ‘G for 2016 they did score reasonably well there in their two games last year, so there’s no reason to think that they shouldn’t score well against Collingwood this week.

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Carlton – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants are the toughest team to score against this year and that applies across all positions. They’ve given up less 100+ scores than anyone, especially to midfielders, and they’ve also conceded only 3 x 120s for the season and zero x 140s. They have been absolutely insane at home and that is where they are at this week, and it’s Carlton’s turn to feel the pinch. Do not choose a captain from Carlton this week! Zero players from Sydney, Hawthorn, Gold Coast or Geelong reached 100 away to GWS & less than a quarter of all opposition players have even reached 70 against them there. They are conceding less than 1 x 100+ score per match at home all season and nobody has reached 110 yet. In short, Carlton will not score many DT points this week.

In contrast, GWS have been scoring for fun at home, averaging 7 x 100s per game! So it’ll be an easy matchup for GWS and a freakishly difficult matchup for the Blues.

St Kilda – (v Geelong @ Etihad) – The Cats give up the 3rd least DT points per game of any team this week, and held the Dogs to only 1471 points at their same home ground last week. The Cats aren’t nearly as tough an opponent as GWS this week, but they’ve been consistently restrictive and they should be again here.

BEST & WORST RUNS HOME:

Given that it’s the final upgrade season over the next few weeks, let’s have a quick look at the DT Fixture to see who the best & worst fixtures are from Round 14 through to the end of the season:

DEFs: Geelong & Gold Coast look to have the best fixture for DEFs from here on, especially in the next few weeks; while Port & Hawthorn have the toughest runs home.

MIDs: The Bulldogs, Giants & Crows all have decent runs home for their MIDs, and the Suns have a great run from Round 18 onwards. Conversely, Essendon & North have the toughest runs home for MIDs.

RUCKs: The good DT runs home for RUCKs look to be for the Giants and, from Round 15 onwards, also for the Crows. The bad runs home for RUCKs look to be for Port & Carlton and, after this week, also for West Coast.

FWDs: The Giants again, and also the Suns again have great runs home for their FWDs over the last 11 games. The bad DT Fixtures for FWDs on the runs home are for the Swans (the Swans DT Fixture for FWDs is easily the worst of all teams) and also for the Pies.

So there you go. Use the fixture analysis, check out how teams scored in Round 13 and go with your gut. The numbers don’t lie but they’re no guarantees. Good luck with your teams in Round 14 – hopefully this gives you a bit of help in some of your decisions!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


Leave a Comment