The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 15+.
DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 15
This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity.
As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:
Round 14 Recap:
Hawthorn – (v Gold Coast @ Launceston) – Don’t look now but the Suns have now lost 10 games in a row. In terms of DT points, they’ve given up an average of 5.5 x 100s in that time, 1.5 x 120s in that time & have also conceded more than 1750 points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks became another team in those stats as they put up 1802 points, with 5 x 100s & a 121 from Sam Mitchell.
Fremantle – (v Collingwood @ MCG) – Only 1458 points for the Dockers this week, and only the two scores above 91. Either they didn’t like the cold, they weren’t used to the MCG or the Magpies showed a bit of improvement – whichever it was, Freo scored below what they were expected to last week.
Carlton – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Blues performed a minor miracle by actually having a few solid DT scorers this week. Their team put up 1576 which is excellent for an away team at GWS, and we even finally had a player crack the 110 barrier, with Bryce Gibbs saluting with a huge 126 – take a bow, Bryce!
St Kilda – (v Geelong @ Etihad) – The Cats held the Saints to 1533 points this week, which is about an average result really. No massive captains scores from the Saints but quite solid all things considered.
Who has the EASY match-ups this week:
St Kilda – (v Gold Coast @ Gold Coast) – Don’t look now but the Suns have now lost 10 games in a row. In terms of DT points, they’ve given up an average of 5.5 x 100s in that time, 1.5 x 120s in that time & have also conceded more than 1750 points in 7 of their last 8 games. They don’t seem to have an obvious tagger and opposition midfielders are scoring well against them (eg Mitchell and Lewis last week), so the Sai
West Coast – (v Essendon @ Subiaco) – The Bombers are increasingly giving up points this year and that looks to continue with an away trip to Perth this week. The Eagles have performed well at home but if you look at who they’ve actually played at home & away you’ll see that it’s really the case that they’ve performed well against teams outside the 8. With the Bombers definitely in that category, the Eagles should score well this week.
Who has the HARD match-ups this week:
Western Bulldogs – (v Sydney @ Sydney) – Without North, Geelong or the Giants this week there are no obvious hard matchups. The toughest on paper looks to be for the Doggies, having to play away to the Swans. The Swans are conceding an average of 1555 DT points per game this year, which is only slightly below the competition average, so it’s nothing major to worry about, however it’s the closest thing to a tougher game this week.
BEST & WORST RUNS HOME:
Given that it’s the final upgrade season over the next few weeks, let’s have a quick look at the DT Fixture to see who the best & worst fixtures are from Round 15 through to the end of the season:
DEFs: Geelong & Gold Coast look to have the best fixture for DEFs from here on, especially in the next few weeks; while Port & Hawthorn have the toughest runs home.
MIDs: The Bulldogs, Giants & Crows all have decent runs home for their MIDs, and the Suns have a great run from Round 18 onwards. Conversely, Essendon & North have the toughest runs home for MIDs.
RUCKs: The good DT runs home for RUCKs look to be for the Giants and, from Round 15 onwards, also for the Crows. The bad runs home for RUCKs look to be for Port & Carlton and, after this week, also for West Coast.
FWDs: The Giants again, and also the Suns again have great runs home for their FWDs over the last number of games. The bad DT Fixtures for FWDs on the runs home are for the Swans (the Swans DT Fixture for FWDs is easily the worst of all teams) and also for the Pies.
So there you go. Use the fixture analysis, check out how teams scored in Round 14 and go with your gut. The numbers don’t lie but they’re no guarantees. Good luck with your teams in Round 15 – hopefully this gives you a bit of help in some of your decisions!