DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 20
This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity.
As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:
Round 19 Recap:
Adelaide – (v Essendon @ Adelaide Oval) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. Adelaide continued that by putting up 1825 points and scoring a few 100s this week.
Sydney – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in all of their past 5 matches. Sydney also continued that by putting up1872 points this week and having a lot of their players go very, very big. All 4 of the Swans’ gun mids all had great scores.
Richmond – (v GWS @ Canberra) – The Giants have been the most restrictive team this year all up, and at home they really have been something else. In Canberra they are giving up only around 1400 points a game and only 1 x 100+ score per game. With that all in mind, and also knowing that the Tigers got absolutely hammered, they actually scored alright, putting up 1527 points and a couple of 100s.
Western Bulldogs – (v Geelong @ Geelong) – The Cats are still one of the more restrictive teams this year and the Dogs struggled against them as well, only having 1 player score above 88 (though it should be noted that both Libba & Macrae were on track to do so as well, until they went off injured).
Who has the EASY match-ups this week:
Geelong – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. Geelong are the beneficiaries of that this week and should score better than average against the Dons. If your Cats players are ever going to have big/better scores, it should be this week.
West Coast – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in all of their past 6 matches. West Coast should be licking their lips this week as they play the team who has given up more DT points this season than any other.
Who has the HARD match-ups this week:
Gold Coast – (v GWS @ Gold Coast) – The Giants have been the most restrictive team this year all up, however away from home they are not nearly as tough.They’ve also been giving up a bit more in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Still, they are the toughest team across the season still and the Suns should find it a bit tougher than normal to score this week.
Essendon – (v Geelong @ Etihad) – The Cats are still one of the more restrictive teams this year and the Bombers will find the going tough against them. They really should score below average this week agains the Cats.
So there you go. Use the fixture analysis, check out how teams scored in Round 19 and go with your gut. The numbers don’t lie but they’re no guarantees. Good luck with your teams in Round 20 – hopefully this gives you a bit of help in some of your decisions!