This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity.
As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:
Geelong – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. Geelong didn’t really take full advantage of that, scoring only slightly more than average (1624 points) and not really having anyone with a big captain’s score.
West Coast – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in all of their past 6 matches. West Coast also didn’t really take full advantage of that, possibly because they just don’t have the dominant midfield that most of Freo’s other recent opponents’ have had (most of the points Freo have been conceding have been to MIDs recently, and the Eagles didn’t manage to do that).
Gold Coast – (v GWS @ Gold Coast) – The Giants have been the most restrictive team this year all up, however away from home they are not nearly as tough.They’ve also been giving up a bit more in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Well, it’s a bit of a late call but it really does seem like the Giants are merely middle of the road when they play away from home (in terms of conceding DT points anyway), and they gave up another 1600+ score to the Suns this week.
Essendon – (v Geelong @ Etihad) – The Cats are still one of the more restrictive teams this year and the Bombers will find the going tough against them. They scored ok in the end, 1567 points as a team, however the majority of their points came from defenders, including Mitch Brown who almost broke the Bombers’ all-time marks record (think cheap +6s in the backline for the Dons).
Who has the EASY match-ups this week:
Gold Coast – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. Gold Coast have them this week, and they really should score more than average against the Bombers.
Adelaide – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in most of their matches since the bye. And it has been midfielders who have led the charge, with several teams having several MIDs going big against them. The Eagles couldn’t do that last week but the Eagles don’t have as a good a midfield as the Crows do, and players like Sloane, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch & others should be licking their lips.
Who has the HARD match-ups this week:
West Coast – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants have been one of the most restrictive teams this year all up, and the bulk of that damage has been done at their home games, conceding an average of only 1.5 x DT 100s & only 1447 points in total at their home ground. Still, they have been conceding more of late than they were earlier in the season and their air of invincibility is going somewhat, so while the Eagles should find the scoring tough this week, it likely won’t be as tough as it would’ve been had they played here earlier in the season.
Hawthorn – (v North Melbourne @ MCG) – North have been quietly going about their business in DT points this year and are now the clear #1 team in terms of DT restrictiveness this year. They have only conceded 1600+ on three occasions, and have never conceded 1700+ this year. When the Hawks played North earlier this year they only had three players score above 77, with only one over 100 (Lewis 106). The main concession to that is that this is, believe it or not, North’s FIRST game at the MCG since September, 2015! And so they have no form at that ground, good or bad, to comment with.
So there you go. Use the fixture analysis, check out how teams scored in Round 19 and go with your gut. The numbers don’t lie but they’re no guarantees. Good luck with your teams in Round 21 – hopefully this gives you a bit of help in some of your decisions!