DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 22

Rounds 22+, 2016
DT Fixture Analysis 2016 – Round 22

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. DT Fixture Key

As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R21, 2016

Round  Recap:

Gold Coast – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. Gold Coast only scored around average against them, though (1565), with Touk Miller the pick of the bunch.

Adelaide – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in most of their matches since the bye. And it has been midfielders who have led the charge, with several teams having several MIDs going big against them. The Crows took full advantage of this, scoring 1875 points and having 7 players go 100+ against them, including 4 MIDs.

West Coast – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants have been one of the most restrictive teams this year all up, and the bulk of that damage has been done at their home games, conceding an average of only 1.5 x DT 100s & only 1447 points in total at their home ground. This somewhat continued for the Eagles, scoring only 1402 points. They did, however, have an outlier in Shuey who scored 142 – the first player for the entire season to score 140+ v GWS at any ground.

Hawthorn – (v North Melbourne @ MCG) – North have been quietly going about their business in DT points this year and are now the clear #1 team in terms of DT restrictiveness this year. They had only conceded 1600+ on three occasions, and had never conceded 1700+ this year. Well, the Hawks obliterated those stats by scoring 1809! They fairly smashed the Kangas in a lot of areas, and DT points was another one. It was the Roos’ only game at the MCG this year, and perhaps is a worrying sign for their September aspirations with a result like this at the ground.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Western Bulldogs – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. The last couple of weeks they haven’t been flogged in that area, however they’re still one of the easier matchups for DT purposes and the Dogs should score more than average against them.

GWS – (v Freo @ GWS) – Freo are giving up massive points lately, giving up big team totals in most of their matches since the bye. And it has been midfielders who have led the charge, with several teams having several MIDs going big against them. The Giants will be smarting after their loss last week, and you’d expect them to take full advantage of it against the Dockers at home this week.

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Fremantle – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants have been one of the most restrictive teams this year all up, and the bulk of that damage has been done at their home games, conceding an average of only 1.5 x DT 100s & only 1441 points in total at their home ground. Still, they have been conceding more of late than they were earlier in the season and their air of invincibility is going somewhat, so while the Dockers should find the scoring tough this week, it likely won’t be as tough as it would’ve been had they played here earlier in the season.

Sydney – (v North Melbourne @ Hobart) – North have been quietly going about their business in DT points this year. They hadn’t conceded 1700+ this year until last week, when the Hawks smashed through that barrier. Still, they are one of only two teams to be conceding an average of less than 1500 points per game this year, and in their two games in Hobart they’ve conceded only 1429 points on average (and it was similarly low last year too). So DT points are hard to come by against North in Tassie, and generally (except for last week). So while the Swans may potentially carry on their great form, on paper it’s not the easiest matchup for them.

So there you go. Use the fixture analysis, check out how teams scored in Round 21 and go with your gut. The numbers don’t lie but they’re no guarantees. Good luck with your teams in Round 22 – hopefully this gives you a bit of help in some of your decisions!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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