This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity.
As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2016 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:
Western Bulldogs – (v Essendon @ Etihad) – The Bulldogs scored pretty well against the Dons last week, with 1766 as a team and a couple of BIG hundreds in there – JJ with a 144 & Picken with a 137. They made good use of the easy opponent.
GWS – (v Freo @ GWS) – 1804 DT points for the Giants against the Dockers and a 92 point win in the real thing. Multiple big hundreds again – these Dockers are paying out and they’ve been paying out massively for months!
Fremantle – (v GWS @ GWS) – As suggested last week, the Giants’ air of invincibility has well and truly gone in DT terms. The Dockers are terrible this year and got absolutely pumped, yet still scored 1590 DT points including a gigantic 169 from Lachie Neale!
Sydney – (v North Melbourne @ Hobart) – As mooted last week, playing the Kangas down in Tassie wasn’t the easiest matchup for the Swans who scored a below-average total of 1518 DT points, with no player reaching 110, not even any of their much-vaunted midfield.
Who has the EASY match-ups this week:
Western Bulldogs – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – The Dockers are paying out big time! They have lost their last eight matches in a row, and in DT terms they have given up huge totals in ALL of those matches. In those last eight games, Freo are conceding an average of 1819 DT points, which is astonishingly high! They are conceding an average of nearly 6 x 100+ scores & 1.5 x 120+ scores. About half of all those to MIDs & most of the rest to FWDs and then DEFs. History suggests that the Bulldogs will score much higher than normal this week, and some Doggies will likely go large.
Carlton – (v Essendon @ MCG) – The Bombers are one of the highest conceding teams for the year and have been on a roll of giving up at worst an average amount of points, and often a lot more. The last couple of weeks they haven’t been flogged in that area, however they’re still one of the easier matchups for DT purposes and the Blues should score more than average against them.
Who has the HARD match-ups this week:
Melbourne – (v Gelong @ Geelong) – So the Cats have been one of the more restrictive teams across the whole season, and are now back on their home turf this week. It is worth noting that they got well beaten by the Demons down there last year, and Gawn & Vince & co went to town on them with some monster games, however this year the Cats are much tighter down at the Cattery and in general, and the Dees will likely struggle to score as well as normal this week.
GWS – (v North Melbourne @ Etihad) – North have been quietly going about their business in DT points this year. They hadn’t conceded 1700+ this year until recentl, when the Hawks smashed through that barrier. Still, they are one of only two teams to be conceding an average of less than 1500 points per game this year, and the Giants may thus not have it all their own way this week, from both an AFL & a DT point of view.
So there you go, another season done and dusted! I hope you’ve had a cracker year, and best of luck in any Grand Finals that you may find yourself in. Whatever happens, enjoy the experience, congratulate your opponent and put in a big pre-season all ready for 2017 🙂