Fixture Analysis – Round 12

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 11-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 12

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R11, 2017

Round 11 Recap:

 

Well that’s three games in a row at Kardinia Park (or whatever they call it these days) and the Cats are cleaning up down there. They’re conceding only 1476 points per game down there and 1.7 x DT 100s – both of which are very low, for this year especially. In reply they’re putting up over 1750 points per game and 4.3 x DT 100s. They play down there again soon vs Freo and then finish up with three of their last four down there. Perhaps a late season trade in for any gun Cats mids that you don’t have come Round 20 could be on the cards?

The Pies put up the most points this week with 1911 and 8 players going 100+, while holding Freo to just one over 100. North & the Eagles conceded the next most (to Richmond & the Suns respectively). The Tigers went nuts at the pointy end with four players going over 120 and three of those going close to or over 140. A trend against North beginning or just the exorcising of a few demons by the Tiges over one of their bogey teams?

Reports of Spencer being available this week may mean an end to ruckmen scoring huge against the Dees, though Pedersen may continue in the role still until Gawn is back. The Dees will still show up as easy on the fixture PDFs due to the Pedersen era though so bear this in mind when using it.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Gold Coast – (v Hawthorn @ MCG) – After what seems to be a one-week anomaly against the Swans, the Hawks paid out against against Port last week. Given how many points they’ve been giving up for the vast majority of the season so far, and especially in a week with less options to choose from, the Suns get the #1 slot this week for playing the Hawks. The Hawks have also either not attempted or not managed successfully to tag much this year and the Suns have a number of players who can score well given the opportunity.

Western Bulldogs – (v Sydney @ ) – The Swans gave up a lot earlier in the season and despite getting some form and players back they’ve still given up over 1700 points in each of their last two games (against the Saints & against the lowly Hawks at home). The Dogs are next up and as a result it shapes as an easier than average fantasy game for them. With this being the Thursday night game it could be an opportunity for the VC loophole somewhere, if you think the Dogs have anyone scoring highly enough at the moment to consider.

 

 

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Carlton – (v GWS @ Etihad) – GWS away is the toughest matchup in footy but playing at home against them traditionally hasn’t been nearly as bad, and the Blues are at home this week. GWS have improved when playing away this year though, in terms of DT points conceded anyway, and they do still project as a harder than average matchup this week, though not as bad as if they were playing in Western Sydney or in Canberra.

Collingwood – (v Melbourne @ MCG) – The Dees have been one of the more restrictive teams for this whole season and they’re still in that position, halfway through the season. They’ve given up an average of 1558 points per game which is comfortably below average and they’ve conceded low 1500s in two of their last three as well to show that they’re still proving rather difficult to score against, comparative to other teams in 2017 anyway.

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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