Fixture Analysis – Round 13

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 12-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 13

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R12, 2017

 

Rounds 9-12 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)


Round 12 Recap:

What an amazing week of scoring! An astounding amount of premiums scored big this week in what gave rise to some pretty huge scores in the middle of a bye round. Brisbane put up the most points for the week, being the only ones to crack 1900 (against Freo). The Pies, Dons & Suns also went close, each putting up over 1800, over Melbourne, Port & Hawthorn respectively. The Hawks have been paying out all season but the Dees & Power hadn’t been too bad. It’s starting to look like a season with less predictability than in recent years.

The Bulldogs, Eagles & Dockers have now been giving up over 1800 points a game over the last month and thus are really starting to pay out. The Pies and Lions in particular have feasted on Freo in recent weeks so they’ll be a matchup to savour once they’re back from their bye. the Cats are at the most restrictive end of the list over the last month but that is very misleading as all three of their matches in that period have been at Kardinia Park. They play there again soon against Freo so you can expect Freo to struggle (and the Cats to dominate) in that fixture but thereafter the Cats will likely be back to their normal restrictiveness (which is above average but not at the level they’ve been at home).

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Melbourne – (v Western Bulldogs @ Etihad) – The Dogs’ season is starting to slide and that’s equally true in fantasy footy. they’ve conceded an average of 1816 points per game over the last month at a range of grounds, including 5.3 x DT 100s per game and 2.3 x 120s per game. Their average conceded is now up around 1680 points per game on the season as a whole as well and whichever way you look at it the Dees project as having an easy matchup this week.

North Melbourne – (v St Kilda @ Etihad) – The Saints have been giving up a lot more points than average across the season and across the last month in general so this projects as an easier than average matchup for North either way. Across the season it’s actually the easiest matchup on paper for Round 13 (given the Hawks etc are on their bye) and several teams have had a lot of players score big on the Saints at different times.

 

 

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Western Bulldogs – (v Melbourne @ Etihad) – The Dees have been one of the more restrictive teams for this whole season and they’re still in that position, halfway through the season. They’ve given up an average of 1581 points per game which is comfortably below average and they’ve conceded low 1500s in two of their last four as well to show that they’re still proving rather difficult to score against, comparative to other teams in 2017 anyway. The Pies went large against them at the ‘G in Round 12 though so if the Dogs can replicate that then perhaps it’s not as hard a matchup as it has been. One particular aspect that may change though is the ruck scoring against the Dees, with one or both of Gawn & Spencer seemingly available (meaning the Dogs’ rucks will not have the luxury of a game one out against Pedersen [Grundy’s 158 potentially the last we’ll see of rucks dominating against the Dees this year]).

On other teams, no other matchup noticeably stands out as tough. The Cats do on recent form but that’s all been on the back of Kardinia Park matches so them playing away to West Coast doesn’t necessarily mean all that much difficulty for the Eagles players this Thursday.

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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