Fixture Analysis – Round 16

 

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 16-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 16

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R15, 2017

 

Rounds 12-15 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)

Round 15 Recap:

A big week of scoring across the league this week with teams scoring an average of over 1650 pts per game, which is massive! The Hawks continued conceding a heap this year by giving up over 1750 pts & 5 x DT 100s to the Pies, however they also scored nearly 2000 points themselves!

The Lions had another win, with only two players reaching 100 against them. In an amazing stat, the Lions have now conceded the least number of 140+ scores this year (only one – Zach Merrett) – incredible given they are last on the ladder!

The Swans & Suns conceded by far the least this week, to the Dees & Kangas, while scoring well themselves.

Sandi did his hammy but young Sean Darcy hardly skipped a beat, putting up his own maiden 100 for the Dockers – it’ll be interesting to see how opposing rucks go against him from here on out, or whether Freo couple him with Griffin to assist.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

GWS – (v Hawthorn @ Launceston) – The Hawks have been giving up big scores all season and despite a big win last week still gave up a lot of points to the Pies, with 1766 pts & 5 x 100+ scores, all of which are not too far removed from their season average. They’ve also given up an average of 1687 pts & 7 x 100+ scores down at Launceston so far in 2017 as well so it bodes well for GWS.

North Melbourne – (v Freo @ Etihad) – Freo have given up the equal-2nd-most points per game this year and over the past month are clearly the 2nd-most. Teams have been feasting on them in recent weeks so they’ve really been paying out. The Saints didn’t quite manage that last week though it was still around an average score away, and the Saints have been terrible away in recent years. Either way it suggests that North should score better this week than they have on average this year.

 

 

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Hawthorn – (v GWS @ Launceston) – The Giants have long been a dominant force at home but this year they’ve also improved away. Currently, they are by far the most restrictive team in the AFL this year, giving up an average of only 1545 pts (against a league avg of 1630) & 2.5 x 100s (against a league avg of 3.7) and are generally quite hard to score against. Of course there are mere mortals and then there is Patrick Dangerfield, who last week not only became the highest scoring opposition player away to GWS for the season but did it despite only THREE of his teammates scoring above 79!!! So if you think the Hawks have such a player (Tom Mitchell perhaps?) then perhaps they will still be good, though GWS is still quite a tough matchup for them.

Gold Coast – (v Sydney @ SCG) – The Swans started the year as one of the loosest teams in the league in terms of DT points conceded. Since they started winning in Round 7 though, they’ve given up an average of just 1550 pts & 3.0 x 100s per game – well below the league average and not that far behind GWS’s stats (above). It shows the Swans are in ripping form, not just in terms of winning games but in terms of restricting opposition scoring in fantasy terms. Be wary of captaining any Suns this week unless you have another good reason to do so.

 

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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