Fixture Analysis – Round 17

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 16-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 17

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R15, 2017

 

Rounds 12-15 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)

Round 16 Recap:

What an up & down week that was! Some monster scores and many, many below average premiums, not to mention more outs and late outs.

Three teams scored just 1300s for team DT points this week which is very, very low. Incredibly, though unsurprisingly, one of those was Brisbane. Zorko’s 181 doing nothing but reinforce that the bulk of the Lions’ stats are gathered by an elite few. Good news for those who own the elite few though. Richmond and West Coast were the others to score lowly.

Adelaide, GWS, Carlton & St Kilda scored the most, all over 1800, though no monster team totals. Docherty kept up his astonishing season, as did Tom Mitchell, Danger’s mid-season resurrection continued on apace as well.

 

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Geelong – (v Hawthorn @ MCG) – The Hawks have been giving up big scores all season and despite a big win two weeks ago and a draw last week they still gave up a lot of points to the Pies & the Giants, with 1766 pts & 5 x 100+ scores vs the Pies and with 1832 points vs the Giants, all of which are not too far removed from their season average. They’ve consistently been a team giving up a large amount of points this year and so there’s simply no good reason to think that the Cats won’t find the scoring easy this week. One interesting tidbit though is that the highest individual score the Hawks have given up was way back in Round 1 (156 to Heppell). Can the Cats break that score by an individual this week or will the Hawks keep that one a little longer?

West Coast – (v Freo @ Subiaco) – Freo have given up the equal-2nd-most points per game this year and over the past month are the 2nd-most. Teams have been feasting on them in recent weeks so they’ve really been paying out. The Kangas didn’t quite manage that last week though it was still around an average score away, and the Kangas haven’t been scoring huge this year themselves. Either way it suggests that West Coast should score better this week than they have on average this year.

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Sydney – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants have long been a dominant force at home and this year is no exception. Currently, they are by far the most restrictive team in the AFL this year, giving up an average of only 1545 pts (against a league avg of 1630) & 2.5 x 100s (against a league avg of 3.7) and are generally quite hard to score against. At home those figures become a lot more restrictive too. It’s quite ridiculously really – they have the longest injury list in the league, they played away and only managed a draw yet still held the Hawks to just over 1500 points as a team last week. Against Sydney themselves, the Giants have played them four times going back to mid-last year (including pre-season) and in three of those four games ZERO Sydney players have reach 100. In the other game only two got there with the highest individual score being 110. In this game last year, at Spotless Stadium, ZERO Swans players reached 100. Now, the Swans are on a roll lately and they essentially have no injuries whatsoever; the Giants are on a slightly lesser roll (they are equal top of the ladder!), they have about half their best team out injured and yet they have still been restrictive and competitive. It’s amazing really, and given their recent dominance over the Swans (in both AFL terms and in fantasy terms), despite the chasm in difference between their injury lists this game still projects as a major danger game for the Swans & I really wouldn’t recommend that you pick a skipper from the red and white this week.

 

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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