Fixture Analysis – Round 19

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 19-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 19

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R18, 2017

 

Rounds 15-18 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)

 

Round 18 Recap:

Feel like you had a low-scoring round this week? Feel like your draft team underperformed? It wasn’t just you, it was pretty much everyone. Across the AFL, Round 18 was, by far, the lowest scoring round of the season (in terms of dream team points). It wasn’t really close either. The average team score over the 9 matches was 1557 points which is a good 70 points per game less than the season average. There weren’t many 100s or 120s either, in fact only 9 players scored 120 this week out of all 396 to take the field so if you captained one of them then well done! (Exhibit A being the bloke to the left of this paragraph)

Freo & the Hawks have the been the two teams giving up the most points in recent months and they played each other. Fixture aficionados would’ve hoped for a points fest but unfortunately it was all one way with the Hawks going to town but Freo not reciprocating. Tom Mitchell took full advantage, as usual, and Jack Gunston also got in on it, scoring well again in his new defensive role and proving excellent value at his current price for those who owned him last week.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

GWS – (v Freo @ GWS) – Freo have given up the 2nd-most points per game this year and over the past month are now clearly the most. Teams have been feasting on them in recent weeks and the Hawks continued it last week even away to Freo. With more injuries piling up (Walters now out for the season), the Giants’ ball-winners will be licking their lips this week as they host the purple brigade.

Any more? Nobody else really stands out as having an easy week this week. The season is too volatile at present and even the Hawks, who have been paying out for most of the year, held Freo to just 1480 points last week and now play Sydney, who scored only 1396 points against the Hawks when they played earlier this season, so there’s hardly any confidence even going with that matchup this week. Port could be good but the Saints, while generally loose this year, still aren’t giving up big totals each week (and in fact held Sydney to just 1479 pts & only one score over 100 despite a big loss away from home).

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Fremantle – (v GWS @ GWS) – The Giants have long been a dominant force at home and this year is no exception. Currently, they are by far the most restrictive team in the AFL this year and are generally quite hard to score against. They’ve also been much better away from home this year than in previous years. They’ve also been the most restrictive team in the league over the past month. In six games at the Showgrounds in Western Sydney this year they’ve conceded an average of just 1543 points per game and 2 x DT 100s (compared to league averages of 1623 & 3.7) and it’s eerily common that an opponent will not even get one player to triple figures. It’s amazing really as this is despite all the injuries that GWS have had and continue to have.

 

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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