Fixture Analysis – Round 22

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 22-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 22

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R21, 2017

 

Rounds 18-21 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)

 

 

Round 21 Recap:

The 2nd lowest scoring round of the year was Round 21 (in terms of total fantasy points scored across the AFL this week). The Swans were the main event, scoring over 1800 points and holding Freo to the astoundingly tiny 1192 points for the week. If you had any Freo players (Fyfe the exception) I’m sure you’re well aware of how lowly they scored. Ryan, Neale – the list goes on and it wasn’t pretty.

Adelaide and Hawthorn were the next highest scorers and no other team was much above average really. Not that many large individual scores this week either – Beams topped 140 and Billings went 135 but nobody else exceeded 130 out of all 396 players this round.

Tom Mitchell finally righted the ship and scored 100 again, though he was on track for exactly 100 all day until a late burst halfway through the 4th quarter. Dangerfield was back with a bang himself with a 130 too.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Richmond – (v Fremantle @ Subiaco) – Freo have been a reasonably high conceder all season and got absolutely pounded by the Swans last week. Scuttlebutt suggests Neale could be done for the year as the Dockers’ injury list gets longer and that ain’t gonna suddenly cause Freo to concede less points all of a sudden so it bodes well for Richmond who play them this week. Freo are now the highest conceding team for the season and almost the highest over the past month so it’s a pretty safe bet that your Tigers will do better than average on them this week.

St Kilda – (v North @ Etihad) – North have given up the most DT x 100s to MIDs this year and almost the most to DEFs as well and they gave up several big scores to Hawks MIDs & DEFs last week as a case in point. North is limping to the line and as much as they have been trying to win there’s more to gain for them trying the kids out than pulling out all stops to win (they are still a shot at the #1 pick too) so you can take it as read that the Saints are on a good thing this week. And while we’re at it, FWDs have scored quite generously on North this year as well.

 

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

West Coast – (v GWS @ Spotless) – The Giants have long been a dominant force at home and this year is no exception. Currently, they are by far the most restrictive team in the AFL this year and are generally quite hard to score against. They’ve also been much better away from home this year than in previous years. They were incredible last week away to the Bulldogs, allowing zero players to score more than 100 (Hunter top scored with 100 flat) and conceding only 1393 points all up which is incredibly low in an away match. The Giants are the most restrictive team across the season and since the byes and have been pretty tough over the past month as well. With some players coming back and finals on the horizon, be super wary of playing too many Eagles on field this week against them.

 

And one more tidbit to leave you with – the Bulldogs are the only team this year who have no had a single player score 140+ in a match (in RDT/AF). Can they get one of their players over the line in the final two matches? Who do you think it’ll be? Or will they suffer the statistical ignominy of failing to produce?

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


Leave a Comment