Fixture Analysis – Round 23

 

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 22-23.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 23

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated regularly, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R21, 2017

 

Rounds 18-21 Snapshot (for those interested in immediate form)

 

Round 22 Recap:

After some lower scoring rounds we were back with a bang this week! Premium after premium tonned up and then went on with it. Tom Mitchell was back, Docherty was back, Taylor Adams continued his amazing form, Josh Kelly, Rory Sloane, Rory Laird, Jack Macrae. It just went on and on and on and as a result we saw some absolutely monster scores this week across formats and draft leagues alike!

Of course there were some stinkers too with GWS’ opponents leading the charge as a team, being held below 1500 points (which is nothing unexpected for teams playing away to GWS). The Dons pumped out a huge 1808 points this week, holding the suns to just 1437 and that continues a big trend of Suns teams giving up big points lately. Port will be licking their lips for next week, especially Paddy Ryder as Bellchambers got 116 on Brooksby and Ryder is a big step up on Belly.

How did you go? Hopefully you got up in your prelims or early grand finals or just simply had a good week in your quest to finish as high as possible in the salary cap formats. We head into the final round this week now though so let’s check out how it could unfold.

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

Essendon – (v Fremantle @ Docklands) – Freo have been a reasonably high conceder all season and got absolutely pounded by the Swans two weeks ago. Freo are now the highest conceding team for the season and almost the highest over the past month so it’s a pretty safe bet that your Bombers will do better than average on them this week.

Brisbane – (v North @ Gabba) – North have given up the most DT x 100s to MIDs this year and almost the most to DEFs as well and they gave up several big scores to Hawks MIDs & DEFs a couple of weeks ago as a case in point. North is limping to the line and as much as they have been trying to win there’s more to gain for them trying the kids out than pulling out all stops to win so you can take it as read that the Lions are on a good thing this week from a fantasy point of view. And while we’re at it, FWDs have scored quite generously on North this year as well.

Port Adelaide – (v Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval) – Gold Coast have been getting pounded lately – Essendon put up 1800 points on them in Round 22, with 1630 & 1750 points being scored on them in the two weeks prior. Paddy Ryder should be huge given Bellchambers got 116 on Brooksby this week (i.e. safely ignore what the fixture analysis says about Gold Coast’s rucks as those stats are based on Witts, not Brooksby) and somebody in Port’s MIDs or elsewhere could easily go to town as well.

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Geelong – (v GWS @ Kardinia Park) – The Giants have long been a dominant force at home and this year is no exception. Currently, they are by far the most restrictive team in the AFL this year and are generally quite hard to score against. They’ve also been much better away from home this year than in previous years. In the past fortnight they’ve conceded only 1393 & 1491 points with only three players reaching 100 in total across those two games. The Cats played GWS only recently too, in round 15, having a draw if you remember Hawkins’ point after the siren. In that game the Cats scored only 1509 points in total and only four of their players reach 80! Danger the obvious exception with his rather abnormal 142 (but he is abnormally good!). The weird counter-argument to this tough fixture though is that the Cats average A LOT when they play at Kardinia Park this year. They average 1693 points per game and 3.83 x DT 100s per game (over six matches); Danger himself hasn’t scored under 100 at that ground since he became a Cat. So with that all in mind – how will you approach it?

GWS – (v Geelong @ Kardinia Park) – Yep, you read that right – this entire game projects as a tough DT matchup! At Kardinia Park this year, the Cats (across six matches) have conceded an average of only 1500 points per game which is incredibly low. They’ve given up an average of only 1.8 x DT 100s in those matches as well (or in other words only 11 opponents have reach 100 against them across six matches there). On top of that, the Cats are the 2nd most restrictive team this season anyway. It looks another toughie for the traveling Giants this week.

And one more tidbit to leave you with – the Bulldogs were the only team this year who had not had a single player score 140+ in a match (in RDT/AF). So… congrats Jack Macrae! Finally did it for the Doggies with just one round to spare.

Best of luck for this week and I hope you’ve had a ripper season!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim


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