Fixture Analysis – Round 5

The upcoming DT Fixture for each club, for Rounds 5-13.

DT Fixture Analysis 2017 – Round 5

This article looks to do something a little different – it will be a look at the upcoming rounds based purely on the AFL Fantasy/Dream Team (DT) Fixture. In other words, it’ll be a largely stats-based analysis with little subjectivity. 

As will be updated every week, and as I’ve made available in previous years, here is the 2017 Fixture Analysis PDF, with figures up to date as of today. It’s all useful stuff and will become more so as we add more rounds of data to it. Download here:

PDF_LogoDT Fixture Analysis – After R4, 2017

 Round 4 Recap:

GWS continued last year’s amazing run of form in home games, whether in Canberra or Western Sydney, by holding Port Adelaide to just 1385 DT points and allowing zero scores of 100+. Watch out whenever your players play GWS at their home grounds. Richmond had a crushing win despite scoring only 1365 points and is now the lowest scoring team of the year. For a team that is 4-0 this is incredibly unusual and it’ll be interesting to see where the regression lies – will the Tigers lose a few games or will they start scoring more DT points? If neither happens it’ll be a statistical anomaly against the previous 5 years of data that I’ve collected to date. The other point of note is that Collingwood conceded by far the most points in Round 4 with plenty of Saints scoring freely against them.

 

Who has the EASY match-ups this week:

West Coast – (v Hawthorn @ MCG) – Who saw this coming? The Hawks are now the team conceding the most DT points in the league, crikey! They’ve so far conceded an average of 1787 points, 5 x 100s & 2.8 x 120s per match which is quite astounding. The Eagles are the beneficiaries of that this week (assuming it continues).

GWS – (v Sydney @ SCG) – The Swans are quite as bad as the Hawks yet but they’re close, conceding an average of 1749 points per game as well as around 4 x 100s per game. They actually held Port to quite a low total at the SCG in Round 1, however their last three games have been massive in terms of what they’ve given up and GWS are on a big roll and should take advantage of that. One possible mitigating factor though is that the Swans may have a bunch of senior players back – it’ll be interesting to see what difference that makes.

Who has the HARD match-ups this week:

Hawthorn – (v West Coast @ MCG) – The Hawks have the toughest matchup on paper this week, up against the Eagles. West Coast are conceding only 1488 points per game so far this year and against the bottom of the ladder Hawks this could well continue. The Eagles gave up 1590 at the MCG in a Round 3 loss as well which is pretty solid so that’s a further factor supporting it.

Richmond – (v Melbourne @ MCG) – This one is quite intriguing and may simply be a by-product of trying to predict easy & hard fixtures after just four rounds of data. The Dees have certainly started off as being incredibly restrictive and even with a 2-2 record nobody has yet scored 1600 points against them this year in a match (1600 being roughly the average points per game across the league so far). The Tigers are already the lowest-scoring DT team in the league and with a tough fixture they may not score too much as a team this week.

Best of luck for this week!

Tim (3rdM)

@ShanghaiTim

 

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