It’s Decision Day for SuperCoach and DreamTeam coaches! This week prices change and nailing the trades this week can set up your season, while AFLFantasy coaches have plenty of decisions about how to get creative and start making some money. Let’s talk through all the big decisions and dilemmas for fantasy footy coaches.
Use Them Wisely
Regardless of the salary cap fantasy footy format you play you’ve got only 2 trades you can make this week. For SuperCoach and DreamTeam coaches this is your last chance to snag that right cash cow or jump off a failing premium or disappointing breakout candidate before their prices fluctuate. While for AFLFantasy even though some prices have changed it’s certainly the last chance to grab certain players that are making big money start potentially slowing down. Every year at this point in the season we are constantly asked “what’s the bigger priority? Getting the right cash cows or fixing failed breakouts/premiums.” While their is not hard and fast rule about what you should do, mainly do to the variables that each unique side can face I do ask myself these questions and i find by answering them I get clarity about what I should do?
Am I being reactionary?
Premiums like Dan Hannebery and Heath Shaw are certainly starting considerably at a slower pace than what many would have expected they still have proven over a number of seasons that they can be among the best scoring player in their line. However, I know some coaches who are considering sideways trades to adjust their slow starts. Personally, I choose to back in my premiums after a slow start to the season as I’m not sure 2 games of data is enough to make me change my mind from the months of research I put in. Using Hanners and Heather as the example both are capable of pumping out 150’s this week and would hate to jump off them given their proven scoring history regardless of the cash value they may dip. Remember, once you own the premium player their monetary value means nothing if you plan to keep them. Yes, others may trade them in cheaper, but that doesn’t matter to you. Their decreasing value only matters to you if you trade them out. At best your under performing premiums bounce back and you’re right back to where you want to be, while at worst they are failing selections and become bench fodder in your completed side.
Did I have unrealistic expectations?
This is probably a more relevant question when selecting midprice players and breakout candidates, but have the expectations you’ve set on the player too great. For example, did you believe that Jarryd Roughead after one year out of the game would bounce straight into a 90+ average? If that’s the case I suggest you were expecting too much, I think he’s been right around the mark of what someone who hasn’t played and had limited training during his treatment in 12 months could deliver. He’s still the perfect guy to run up to the round 13 bye and move him over to one of Luke Dahlhas, Jackson Macrae, Nick Riewoldt or Lance Franklin.
Does this trade improve my side?
You only have a certain number of trades remaining and once they’re gone you can’t get them back. While you may think ‘I’ve got plenty so wasting 1 or 2 here or there won’t matter,’ my encouragement to you would be this: Nobody knows the future, and as much as skills DOES play a part you need a substantial amount of luck to win leagues and overall rankings. While the trades are certainly there to be used, don’t throw them away frivolously, rather remind yourself that every trade even the ‘fix ups’ need to improve your side. If your side isn’t better off because of the trade you make then don’t do it.
Did i make a mistake in selecting (or passing) on this player?
Humility and honesty is needed to answer this question. Not many like to admit being wrong or making a mistake, but just like in life the quicker you can learn and move on from your mistakes the better it can be for you in the future. Did you jump at shadows? Did someone talk you out of or into someone you weren’t sold on? Did you ignore your gut instinct? Or did you back it, only to have the 50/50 call go against you? Regardless, step back and honestly reflect. Personally, I prefer to back in my premiums, my #1 priority making sure I have nailed the cash cows. These are the players who will help you get to upgrading your side.
In saying all of this, remember one thing. Do what sits right for your side! This game is to be enjoyed not endured and the trades you make should help you enjoy playing.
During our latest midweek episode I asked some members of the panel to share with me their ‘ideal’ Best 22 for every format now that we’ve seen 2 round of Footy. Do you agree or disagree with their picks? Have your say in the poll below each format.
SuperCoach – Ben’s 22
Taylor Adams, Heath Shaw, Rory Laird, Sam Docherty, Jason Johannisen, Kade Simpson
Patrick Dangerfield, Marcus Bontempelli, Nat Fyfe, Joel Selwood, Josh Kennedy, Dayne Beams, Luke Parker, Scott Pendlebury
Max Gawn, Stefan Martin
Luke Dahlhaus, Tom J Lynch, Josh Kennedy, Jackson Macrae, Lance Franklin, Jack Gunston
DreamTeam – Tooler’s 22
Taylor Adams, Heath Shaw, Rory Laird, Sam Docherty, Leigh Montagna, Kade Simpson
Patrick Dangerfield, Zach Merrett, Tom Rockliff, Tom Mitchell, Josh Kennedy, Joel Selwood, Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury
Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy
Jackson Macrae, Nick Riewoldt, Luke Dahlhaus, Lance Franklin, Toby Greene, Isaac Smith
AFLFantasy – Tim’s 22
Taylor Adams, Heath Shaw, Rory Laird, Sam Docherty, Kade Simpson, Jake Lloyd
Patrick Dangerfield, Zach Merrett, Tom Rockliff, Tom Mitchell, Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury, Josh Kennedy, Marcus Bontempelli
Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy
Luke Dahlhaus, Jackson Macrae, Lance Franklin, Nick Riewoldt, Robbie Gray, Isaac Heeney
One of the newest additions over the past 2 years especially to the fantasy footy landscape are the daily match day formats of the game. Each week rather than focusing on one specific gameplay format I’ll suggest one player per game I’d suggest locking into your daily formats of fantasy.
Sydney Vs Collingwood
Some players struggle to perform on the big stage, while others thrive on it. Someone who loves the attention is Sydney’s Lance Franklin. Celebrating his 250th game and with Sydney desperate for avenues to goal I expect Buddy to put on a clinic.
North Melbourne Vs GWS
I think North are in trouble this week against the run and go Giants. Sam Durdin, Ben Brown, Todd Goldstein, Majak Daw and Braydon Pruess all standing 195cm+ and with the Giants run and spread I can see Devon Smith, Dylan Shiel and even Josh Kelly burning them outside the contest. Load up on those outside giants!
Richmond Vs West Coast
Andrew Gaff has been one of the great beneficiaries of Sam Mitchell’s arrival and with Richmond attempts to adopt a faster and more open game plan that is perfect for the outside skills of Gaff. Like a number of Eagles he doesn’t have a great record at the MCG but I think this week he (and the Eagles) turns it all around.
Geelong Vs Melbourne
Whatever you do, don’t select Jack Viney! With the emergence of Clayton Oliver, he’s sacrificed his ball winning to play more team orientated midfield roles. With Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood the difference in last weeks Geelong win over North, I can see Viney playing a tagging role on Dangerfield… Yes, Jordan Lewis is out of the Demons midfield, but don’t be fooled. Don’t get on him!
Port Adelaide Vs Adelaide
Maybe it’s my Adelaide colored glasses on but I think Mitch McGovern is a star! With Adelaide missing Tex Walker in round 1 and Josh Jenkins for most of round 2 Gov’s thrived playing more of a key position role in the Adelaide forward line. With Port Adelaide misses important key defender Jake Hombsch Mitch could benefit from a slightly smaller defensive Port set up.
Fremantle Vs Western Bulldogs
This game could get messy! The Dockers have been horrible and despite ringing in a handful of changes I don’t see it changing the outcome of the game. I’d be loading up on a number of Dogs this week, but it’s Toby McLean and Travis Cloke that have got me interested. Both have the potential to benefit from a low quality docker defense and get plenty of ball and impact the scoreboard. With many likely to lock in the popular Luke Dahlhaus and Jackson Macrae duo up front I’d be looking for a point of difference.
St Kilda Vs Brisbane
No Jack Steven & No David Armitage, that means someone in the St Kilda midfield needs to step up. For me, I’m backing in Seb Ross to be the man for the Saints this week. He bounced back to form last week after a quiet Round 1 and with history from last year showing he can go 130+ I’d be backing him in to lead the undermanned Saints.
Carlton Vs Essendon
Currently sitting third for most goal for the season behind Jeremy Cameron and Josh J Kennedy is Orazio Fantasia. I’d be backing him in again for another handful of goals and a potential ton against Carlton.
Gold Coast Vs Hawthorn
I could suggest so many players here! You could build a case for Gary Ablett to bounce back after being made the scapegoat this week, also for Jaeger O’Meara to raise the fantasy ton for the first time in years against his former side. However, for me, I’m going Tom Mitchell. This week in our weekly Captains Choice article Jimmy highlighted his historical high ceiling and with him coming off the back of a pair of 120+ scores he could easily go that and more again.
Next week UltimateFooty will have their first DPP additional changes. Traditionally, UF waits for more than 3 weeks of data before allocating DPP to some ‘big name’ players we should still see some handy options gain this week.
Fremantle’s Lachie Weller is a certainty in my eyes to be allocated DEF status, as he’s played this role not just throughout this season, but the last handful of games in 2016. If he’s still on the waiver wire go pick him up now, he’s scoring enough to be an on field option currently. Mitch Robinson should also be a strong chance for FWD status, but they may wait on him for a further 3 weeks of data. Richmond duo Brandon Ellis and Reece Conca are a part of the Tigers new look back 6 and while I think UltimateFooty may wait for the next block (post round 6) to an award Ellis DEF status I think he’s a lock to gain it this season. Shaun McKernan should gain RUC status while Shaun Higgins should gain MID status seeing as North are using him as a midfielder exclusively. Brent Stanton has a clearly defined role change and will gain DEF status, whether it’s this week or post round 6 we’ll have to wait and see. Port Adelaide youngster Dan Houston should also pick up DEF status, while I think Jake Barrett is a sneaky chance at having FWD status added. If Robbie Gray’s current role maintain’s he’s a lock for FWD stats to be added, but i think UltimateFooty won’t award it to him this time around.