The Tom Rockliff Conundrum

Time is scarce as examinations begin to plague the thoughts of those under-graduates and high schoolers alike. Yours truly has once again taken part in this blasphemous, half yearly threat to the human soul. Alas, the following post will not involve an elongated ramble about the mullings of one focussing on everything that footy can conjure. Today we speak of the fantasy behemoth of Tom Rockliff, and why he continues to mystify those of a points hungry persuasion.

As you may, or may not have noticed, this article is used as an almost therapeutic, safe haven for me to chat about the rights and wrongs of how everyone plays the game. Debate is the necessity for continuing the progression of this game and thus, pronounced arguments should always be put forward. After all, attempting to find a sufficient reason for any choice you chose to make is undeniably, a requirement of the human soul.

 

These are some of the tweets I read post the most recent Rockliff injury.

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Two respected fantasy footy men amongst the masses who expressed concerns after the Lions captain went down with injury, for the second time this season. To add further woe to this debacle, he had been injured three times in last seasons campaign. Guess what folks. Mister Tom Rockliff is now injury prone. Once you’re struck down 5 times in a year and a half, there can be no question that investing in this point scoring machine is a risk. We all know the masses will complain and be miserly if the 26 year old is struck once more, but no one should be. These are huge warning signs, and thus you’ve been thoroughly warned of the issues that selecting Rockliff now face.

This was a point that has been tirelessly made throughout a number of channels, but as the Rockliff-hype machine builds to unseen proportions, a word of caution is a necessity. We all know Tom Rockliff is perhaps the best fantasy footy player in the Dream Team scoring competitions, and is not too far off in the Supercoach counterpart. This really does not need to be restated. What does need to be evaluated is the concept of score chasing and the understanding of what it takes to win the game. Last weeks score for Tom hurts all non-owners. Clearly it was painful for all those that had to watch on as the owners gleefully jumped up and down in their thousands. The issue is this.

What will win you the competition from this point on?

A fit and firing Rockliff owned by over 20% in both AFL Fantasy and RDT, whilst 8.5% own him at the time of writing in the Supercoach competition. Supercoach aside, those are two humongous, growing ownerships. Similarly priced is a Kennedy or Macrae, both owned by under 3.4% of the competition. Do they have the upside of Rockliff? Very debatable, but they certainly don’t have the injury history of Tom either. Generally I attempt to avoid discussion around injuries, because lets face it, at any moment and at any time, anyone can get injured. It is one of the realities of life. The reason for focussing attention towards this point is to simply exemplify how it may not work out with Rockliff. If you, like me, play in the pursuit to win the competition, than this is one of those perfect risk-reward opportunities. Trailing the pack by a long way (** raises hand **), then large risks must be taken. Can you win with Rockliff? Yes. Can you win without him? Yes. Its as simple as that, and thus if something does happen to the Lion, then you’ll be WELL ahead of the pack.

Consider Fish’s article. How many names are there on that list who are value options with a huge ceiling and history? Jackson Macrae, Josh P. Kennedy, Marcus Bontempelli, shall I continue to name all the midfielders in exceptional form in under 5% of teams? The options are quite simply unparalleled. With time in mind, I will keep this point short, but do consider this. Guys who have rarely exhibited premium-like scoring will jump out at various stages in the season. With a nice role and a little love, Mitch Robinson went from a 70s guy last campaign to a 110s man (DT) for the last half or so of the season. Strange things happen. And I bet my bottom dollar, strange things will happen. Imagine how grand it would be to take advantage of such an oddity!

Final Thoughts

This article is in no means saying, AVOID ROCKLIFF AT ALL COSTS! This thinking simply reinforces to those focussing on overall glory, the context of the big picture rather than the spotlight of that delightfully grand score. Keep evolving your plans. The time may need to come where you trend away from what the majority are doing. As Rids continues to express, he does not care if he comes 20th or 2000th, as long as he took all the potential steps in order to win the entire competition. It is a daring philosophy and quite simply one not for the faint hearted. The unfortunate truth is, if we continue to make the same trades as those above, we won’t be making the necessary inroads. Good luck with the decision either way you go!

Anyway that is some food for thought. Let me know if you’re grabbing Rockliff or looking to go against the grain over on the Coaches Panel Facebook page or alternatively on Twitter @B_Gogos! Good luck this weekend CP fan!


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