Hey it’s MJ and with round 18 about to commence let’s chat through some of the decisions facing coaches ahead of lockout.
Bye Bye Barlow
Over 10% of SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam coaches all have a forced trade this week with the 2016 roller coaster Michael Barlow confirmed out for the rest of the season it’s time to look at some of the best trade targets.
SuperCoach: With this name you get value & one of the top forward options, Daye Zorko. A seasonal average of 111, but with 2 tons in his past 5 his price has slumped marginally so much so that you’ll generate $40k from this move. his lowest score of the season is 86 and a match up against Essendon this week should see you with an immediate reward. If you own him then I’d consider Gold Coast star Tom J Lynch & Hawthorn’s Jack Gunston both are in good form and are both relatively low in ownership.
AFLFantasy: At $515k chances are you don’t have a ton of cash available so going out and getting Zach Merrett, Dayne Zorko or even Dustin Martin could well be out of the equation. For me the red hot of form of Robbie Gray ($502,000) makes him hard to refuse, currently averaging 106 in his past 5 games. While Nick Riewoldt ($522,000) has dropped in price due to only 1`ton in his past 5. Toby Greene and Jarryd Lyons have all been in pretty good scoring form of late and should be considered too.
DreamTeam: We are starting to see a pattern of names and yet again the likes of Leigh Montagna, Nick Riewoldt, Toby Greene all available. Basically if you have no cash you can get anyone except Dusty, Zorko or Zerrett. I like the fixture and form of Toby personally.
Back Your Gut
Chances are if you’ve ever been asked for fantasy footy advice you’ve uttered this phrase to them “back your gut.” Whether it be in preseason setting your team, right through to 50/50 trade dilemmas in season many of us have been encouraged to back in your research and gut feel and pick the player you think. However, in reality often we doubt ourselves, hesitate and sometimes don’t end up following through with it. Sometimes it’s easier to give the right advice to others rather than to take it on yourself. I myself am guilty of this too often. While luck is no doubt a factor 2016 has once again reinforced to me that It’s better to trade in your gut instinct and be wrong rather than miss trading in your gut player and be right. Don’t pity party when things don’t go your way, don’t play the mental game of “If I’d done this instead I’d be…”, rather use the mistakes of your past to help make better decisions moving forward. Do the work, do the the research and take your own advice and back yourself in
Know Your List
If you are in a Ultimate Footy Keeper league now is the crunch time for season 2016. By now you’ll know if your a lock for finals, if you have no chance at all or if you need some things to go your way to get in. What all coaches need to do do in a keeper league is evaluate where your list is really at. Just like an AFL list manager you need to know the strength and depth of your list, know where your holes are and if your team is a genuine chance at a premiership.The answers you honestly get from those questions will determine how you play at the remainder of the season. Do you trade and draft your way to get some young players and high picks? Do you pay to get current premiums? An example would be if you have some older stars like a Matthew Boyd, James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel or a even a Nick Riewoldt and aren’t in finals consideration you could consider looking to move these players on and try to trade them to younger players who right now are averaging less but in 1-2 years could well be a premium. When evaluating the need to hold these older premiums you need to think realistically if they’ll be apart of your next premiership tilt and while trading them out may hurt your teams scoring potential (or even strengthen an opponent) you need to play the long game. I’ve seen in some of the keeper leagues coaches aggressively doing both this and also the reverse which is teams in premiership contention being prepared to pass over some young talent for the sake at a crack at the flag. What you do with your list all determines where you are, but whatever you do don’t just sit on your hands, you should always be looking to better your side. Oh and lastly, if you get it wrong and make a bad trade move that’s ok, remind yourself as competitive as you may be, it’s just a game and life goes on.