Weekend Warm Up: Round 22

Only 2 weeks left in your fantasy footy season! For some the year is done, others are stressing about if they can get themselves another huge score this week in the pursuit of overall rankings glory, while for some it’s a do or die clash in a league preliminary final. Either way whether you play for leagues, overall ranking or just for fun I’ve got something for everyone in the weekend warm up.

Go For the Win

In these final 2 weeks the moves you make will be either defensive or aggressive. The trades, bench decisions & captains choice will determine you fate this weekend. Over the past 5 seasons I’ve gone from being a conservative approach style of coach to becoming a little more daring (I’m no Rids yet.)  Many years ago I previously would’ve done trades and made calls based purely to ‘cancel out’ the uniqueness of my opposition. While I can understand that approach I’m much more in the camp now of wanting to make my team different, by picking players I think that are capable matching, heck even outscoring that dangerous premo of opposition. Unique players will win you the match ups from here. The more unique players you have the more variables you have of being able to outscore your opponent. If you have only 3-5 unique players each then the fate of your season is in the hands of a few players.  If I have 2-3 guys go above averages by 10-15 and my opponent has 3-4 that go under average by 5-10 points I have 50 point turn around in my favor. Back yourself and your team in for the win, take a risk if you need be. Personally, I’d rather lose having a crack than playing it safe. Go a unique trade, pick a point of difference skipper, but don’t just do it for the sake of it, make sure it’s a calculated risk.

Replacing TayTay

An ankle injury late in the game not only ruined any chance of Taylor Adams racking up a ton last weekend but it also meant now those with a trade left are forced to move him on with Collingwood confirming he’ll not play in the remaining 2 game of 2016. While his ownership is relatively low across the formats it’s still an unplanned headache, especially in SuperCoach/DreamTeam due to the fact you like have 1-2 at best. So let’s look through the best case scenario trade targets. I’ll be running off the assumption that you have minimal – zero cash in the bank across all formats.

AFLFantasy – $522,000 (2% ownership)

If you have $16,000 in the kitty then a trade to Marcus Bontempelli is a pretty easy decision. 11 hundreds in his past 14 games, a lowest score in that time of 85 & the next 2 weeks the Dogs take on Essendon & Fremantle who are 2 of the easiest scoring opponents. Even if I had $50K+ in the bank I’d still recommend him. The other option (maybe because you already own Bont) is Stephen Coniglio priced at $531,000 he’s averaging 112 in his past 5 and has scored over 120 on 6 occasions this year so he’s got some decent ceiling.  If you need to make some $ to be able to fix up another player in an existing on field line then I’d be looking at Brad Crouch $466,000 who’s averaging 99 in his past 5 or one of either Luke Dahlhaus $424,000 or Toby Greene $457,000. Despite being MID/FWD’s both have favorable matches this week against Essendon & Fremantle respectively.

SuperCoach – $480,300 (1% ownership)

The format you’re most likely not to have him, and also his cheapest one so let’s go shopping for some value. Again running off the assumption you have no cash in the bank Dylan Shiel is one that could be a great option given the Giants great fixture match up this week and is priced at $465k. Brad Crouch has 4 hundreds in his past 6 games and will cost you less than $10. A name you’ll see me mention in all these segments is Luke Dahlhaus. An injury affected game has pulled his price right down so if you’ve got the ability to make a second trade the extra $80k this trade makes you could be all the difference.

DreamTeam – $554,200 (3.1% ownership)

Similar to AFLFantasy, Marcus Bontempelli is a simple option if you want to get on him. He’s less than $3k more, while fellow bulldog Lachie Hunter is just over $490k so if you’re needing some extra cash for another move that could be another inspired move given the Bulldogs have arguably the best 2 weeks from a fixture perspective. Stephen Coniglio is almost the identical price ($200 less) and with a lowest score of 96 since round 12 he’s a safe scoring option. Of course the cheaper DPP MID/FWD options I mentioned above for AFLFantasy should also be decent picks.

Daily Fantasy Top Picks

Throughout the season we’ve had the opportunity to play many match-day fantasy formats, one of my personal favorites is one of the newer ones in DraftStars. Whether you choose to put some coin on the line and spend some of your hard earned, play the free games (which still have cash prizes) or just create your own challenge for mates you’ve got plenty of options. Of course if you are investing in the paid games, be sure to gamble responsibly. This week & next I’ll share with you one player per game I think is well worth considering. Side note, for those that have never played it’s traditional DreamTeam scoring.

West Coast Eagles Vs Hawthorn Hawks

Brendan Whitecross – DEF/FWD $9,200

I’ll be honest, the team sheets and price tags haven’t been kind to coaches looking for several ‘cheap’ options. Probably the most reliable (and likely most popular) is Whitecross. While he’s not gonna post massive numbers but he is solid enough and with scores of  74, 78, 68 & 89 a score of around 70 is about what you can expect. If you believe Isaac Smith can repeat his efforts from last week he’d be an inspired pick, but with last week being his only triple figure score since round 11 it’d be doing so with little confidence.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs Sydney Swans

Callum Mills – MID $10,050

Again looking for a player with some ‘value’ who’s under the average player price per line is Swans young star Callum Mills. In his past 8 games Callum’s  lowest score is 73, while that sounds low It’s not got the 30-50 range which when you get a player posting those numbers it all but rules you out of any chance at winning. With 3 scores over 90 and a couple of 80’s in that time he’s a handy option in the daily match up. Of course you can spend some big coin on the likes of Josh P Kennedy, Lance Franklin and even Luke Parker who have all been in ripping form lately. Robbie Tarrant also offers potential value given his price tag is below $11k, given he’s a key defender he’ll need a fair few intercept marks & some across ground transition +6 scores to get him over the 80 mark. He did it last week (with a 106) against the Hawks so he’d be a candidate to do it again this week.

Richmond Tigers Vs St Kilda Saints

Blake Acres – MID $9,800

Blake has always shown some promise, but his past 3 weeks of scores have delivered 91, 82 & 99. If he can score around the 90 mark given his price range again you’ll be well on the way to being in contention.  Oleg Markov ($8,900) is coming off the back of 101 & 89 and should again be a popular cheap option in many sides. If you need a mid range option who’s got the ability to pump out a 150 then David Armitage at $12,800 he did post a ton last week and if you believe he can back it up then Ammo presents some value while also likely being unique.

Greater West Sydney Giants Vs Fremantle Dockers

Steve Johnson – MID/FWD $12,400

You can throw plenty of Giants names into the mix here, the Dockers are arguably the best side to play from a fantasy footy perspective at the moment as they are giving away massive points all over the ground. For me Stevie J has the scoring ceiling to be huge this weekend. Yes, he’ll need a bag full of goals to do it something that Toby Greene and Devon Smith aren’t as dependent on to score well but compared to those too I’d expect his ownership to be a little lower. Percentage is crucial for anytime with top 4 spot aspirations and after a shock loss last week I’m expecting GWS to put the foot down on the dockers. Rory Lobb will be a popular option here too with many coaches expecting GWS to dominate and at $10,050 he’s already shown a 100+ score isn’t out of the equation.

Collingwood Magpies Vs Gold Coast Suns

Brodie Grundy – RUC $14,450

Just one score below 99 in his past 8 weeks kinda says it all. He’s no flat track bully either, back in round 17 he went one-on-one against Sam Jacobs and despite the Pies getting belted he still scored an impressive 134. Coaches may look for a cheaper option and picks the Suns ruck, but really for me Brodie is the one. Plenty of coaches will be also on Touk Miller who was a ripper selection last weekend and reward coaches with a 130+ score. While I still think he’ll score well I wouldn’t be expecting a score of that ceiling, let alone the fact that he’ll be far from unique with every man and his dog likely jumping on him at still just over $11k.While Sam May has 5 scores over 80 in his past 7 games, while he’s capable of 40’s due to being a key defender at under $10k coaches may be tempted to go there. For me James Aish is at the same price and a much safer option given his current run of form.

Port Adelaide Power Vs Adelaide Crows

Jarryd Lyons – MID/FWD $12,500

Certainly not ‘cheap’ but hardly pricey and with DPP plus great recent scoring consistency he’s got the ability for you to confidently build a side around him. While others will likely chose the more popular guys of Scott Thompson, Brad Crouch & Matt Crouch (all who are good options too) I think Jarryd could be the one. With a 5 round average of 100 and having only 4 scores under 90 since round 9 he’s as consistent as you come with the potential to pull in 100’s. Ticks the boxes for me.

Carlton Blues Vs Melbourne Demons

Angus Brayshaw – MID/FWD $9,050

Perfect cheap option given that in rounds 18 & 19 he posted scores of 93 & 100. The Blues are cooked, last week plenty of Lions midfielders got among the points and if Gus gets on the end of a few of the many Demons inside 50’s he could well again enter triple figures. He’ll be featuring in my Sunday side. If you want to fork out the big bucks you’ll be likely focusing on getting one guy… Max Gawn. 9 consecutive scores over 100 and 5 of them over 120, but if you’re spending over $15K you’ll be wanting a 120 minimum.  Against Kruezer and Phillips It’d be safe to say he’s a great chance at it.

Brisbane Lions Vs Geelong Cats

Tom Hawkins  – FWD $11,350

To win either the daily shootout or the match specific game you have to take 1-2 calculated risks and get outside of the box (plus get some luck). For me Tomahawk is my prediction for a player to have a big score than normally doesn’t.  The Brisbane backline is undersized and Tom has a habit of getting ahold of teams who lack in the key defensive stocks. A fortnight ago he posted a 97 against Essendon & coaches would gladly take that but will hoping he can recapture a repeat of his numbers of his round 6 matchup against the Suns in which he posted 150. While if you’re looking for a basement price option Josh Clayton $6,400 as a DEF/MID will be popular especially of coaches are needing to save some coin and get on the big boys in the midfield of Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Rockliff  or Joel Selwood.

Essendon Bombers Vs Western Bulldogs

Josh Dunkley – MID $10,400

If the Dogs dismantle Essendon as I expect we’ll get some big DS numbers from this game. Josh Dunkley is just priced under the ‘average’ player price and is a great value pick in your shootout squad or in the daily match. 2 scores over 100 in the past 5 weeks, only one score under 80 and is relishing the extra midfield moments. Any player with the ceiling of 100+ priced under $11k you must seriously consider them. I also think Jonathan Simpkin and Clay Smith will be popular options in this game both of whom are under $9,000. Of course I should mention Marcus Bontempelli here too, I expect 50%+ of coaches will own him as his form of late has been almost irresistible.

 


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